We’re on a 20-8 run with touchdown picks, and it’s time to dive into the 4 best TD picks for Week 5!
These aren’t just blind bets; they’re carefully curated insights into matchups and trends using the information we have at hand.
Whether you’re looking for a single bet or putting together a parlay, I’ll explain why each of these players is primed to find the end zone this week.
1. Derrick Henry – Baltimore Ravens
- Play: Anytime Touchdown or Rushing Touchdown (Fliff -160)
- Why Henry? King Henry has been a touchdown machine this season, finding the end zone in all four games with a total of six touchdowns so far. We all saw what he did against the Buffalo Bills, taking his first touch of the game for 87 yards like a man possessed.
- Key Insight: Henry’s involvement in the Ravens’ offense is undeniable. He’s a go-to option in the red zone, and it’s not just about volume. His ability to break through defensive lines, especially against weaker run defenses, makes him a near-lock for scoring.
- Matchup Analysis: Henry is averaging 20 carries and 120 rushing yards per game, and he’s facing a Bengals defense ranked 28th in rush EPA. Whether you play it safe with the anytime touchdown or get a little savvy with the rushing touchdown prop, this is a strong foundational play for Week 5.
2. Jordan Mason – San Francisco 49ers
- Play: Anytime Touchdown
- Why Mason? Mason has punched in a touchdown in three of the first four games this season. He’s currently ranked in the top three for red zone touches among all NFL players, indicating his significant role when it matters most—near the goal line.
- Key Insight: The Cardinals have given up the most rushing touchdowns in the league to opposing running backs. It’s not just a trend; it’s a glaring weakness in their defensive scheme. Mason has been a workhorse for the 49ers, averaging 22.8 carries and 111.8 rushing yards per game. Arizona struggles against the run, ranking 27th in rush EPA and 28th in RB DVP.
- Matchup Analysis: With Mason’s heavy involvement in the red zone and the Cardinals’ inability to defend against the run, it’s hard to see him not finding paydirt. Sometimes, it’s best not to overthink things—Mason is primed to capitalize on the Cardinals’ defensive lapses.
3. Kyren Williams – Los Angeles Rams
- Play: Anytime Touchdown
- Why Williams? Williams is leading the NFL in red zone touches. He’s been consistent, scoring in 13 of 17 games as a starter for the Rams, and he’s found the end zone in every game this season. What makes Williams even more appealing is his versatility. He’s not just getting touches on the ground; he’s also involved in the passing game with five red zone pass targets this season.
- Key Insight: His ability to score in multiple ways increases his value significantly. Whether it’s a rushing or receiving touchdown, Williams has shown he’s a dependable option for the Rams in scoring situations.
- Matchup Analysis: Against a defense that struggles to contain versatile backs, Williams is in a prime position to continue his scoring streak. He’s a player you can confidently jam into your anytime touchdown bets.
4. Kenneth Walker Jr. – Seattle Seahawks
- Play: Rushing Touchdown (Fliff -115)
- Why Walker? Walker is getting heavy usage near the goal line and has a favorable matchup this week. At -115 for a rushing touchdown, the value is there, making him a great addition to a parlay if you’re looking to boost your potential payout.
- Key Insight: Sometimes, the odds tell you all you need to know. Walker’s price isn’t too steep, and he’s a solid bet to get in the end zone given his current role and red zone involvement.
- Matchup Analysis: Seattle’s game script should favor Walker, giving him plenty of opportunities to see carries inside the 10-yard line. Against a middling run defense, he’s poised to add another touchdown to his season tally.
Building the Parlay
- This is where you can see real value, especially with all four picks supported by strong trends and favorable matchups.
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