Welcome to NFL Player Prop Trends (10/07/24), your daily source for the best FREE props with the hottest trends and best odds. Going forward I will be providing a daily NFL Article. So make sure you bookmark MySpariInsights as I will always have an article for you all! Now let’s get to it.
NFL Player Prop Trend: Patrick Mahomes Over 199.5 Pass Yards
Patrick Mahomes has been a yardage monster this season, hitting the over on his passing yards prop 75% of the time and averaging 226 yards per game. In his last 10 games, he’s gone nuclear, hitting the over 90% of the time while boosting that average to 243.5 passing yards. Over his career, he’s hit this line at a ridiculous 89% clip (57/64 games). Tonight, he’s up against the Saints defense, which has been giving up 252 passing yards per game to opposing QBs. And let’s be real, besides the Panthers (with Bryce Young under center—blah), every other team the Saints have played against has hit over this line. The Saints are also letting QBs toss it around 36.5 times per game. Mahomes only needs 31 attempts as he averaged 297.8 yards over his last 30 games, meaning we could see fireworks tonight. Here’s the kicker: in his last 30 games, Mahomes has missed hitting 199.5 passing yards just once. So if you’re thinking about betting the over on 199.5 yards tonight, it’s hard to argue against it.
NFL Player Prop Trend: Alvin Kamara Over 39.5 Rush Yards
Alvin Kamara is on fire this season! Only four weeks in, and the Saints’ star is averaging a whopping 90.5 rushing yards per game, smashing the over in every single one of them. Over his last 10 games, he’s been clocking an average of 66.8 rushing yards, and in his last 20 games? You guessed it—rocking a beautiful 90% hit rate. Now, let’s talk about tonight’s matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. On paper, KC has a solid run defense, holding opponents to just 57 rushing yards per game. Sounds tough, right? Well, here’s why I LOVE this alternate line of 39.5 rushing yards for Kamara. Every running back the Chiefs have faced this season has hit the over on this mark, averaging 18 rush attempts per game. Kamara has been automatic when he gets at least 14 rush attempts in a game, hitting this over 100% of the time. So, what’s Kamara’s current line? 15.5 rush attempts—and it’s juiced, baby! The books know what’s up, and this should make you feel all the more confident about riding with Kamara tonight. If the trends hold true, Kamara smashing that 39.5 rushing yards line should be as close to a lock as you can get.
NFL Player Prop Trend: Derek Carr Over 185.5 Pass Yards
Derek Carr is about to face the Kansas City Chiefs, and there’s a whole lot to love about his recent performance stats. Carr has been a steady performer this season with a 75% hit rate, averaging 206 passing yards per game. But here’s the kicker: on the road, he’s averaging 241 passing yards and has a 100% hit rate in his last 5 road games. Now, let’s talk about his history with the Chiefs. This is where it gets spicy. Carr LOVES playing Kansas City. Over his last 3 matchups with them, he’s hit a perfect 100% and averaged 255 passing yards per game. That’s some serious consistency. The Chiefs’ defense isn’t exactly shutting down opposing QBs either. They’re allowing 235 passing yards per game and around 33 pass attempts. Books are setting Carr’s line at 31.5 pass attempts, slightly juiced, but let’s be real—Carr has been in these situations before. With 30 pass attempts, Carr has hit this passing yardage line in 95% of games over his career (that’s 35 out of 37 games). Too good to pass up, right? Get your bets in on Carr to crush that passing yards line and watch the magic unfold!
FYI: I combined all three on ParlayPlay for nearly 2X. Best of luck tonight!
Ready to do your own research or find trends like this?
