Welcome to NFL Player Props for Week 9, your daily source for the best FREE props with the hottest trends and best odds. Every week I try and find you the best Props so you can either Parlay all 3 picks or maybe one you like for your own Parlays. Be sure to Bookmark this page as I will always have an article for you all! Now let’s get to it.
NFL Player Prop Trend: A.J. Brown Over 49.5 Receiving Yards
A.J. Brown is on an absolute tear this season, averaging a jaw-dropping 102 receiving yards and hitting the over in all four games so far! Over his last 30 games, he’s smashed this over in 24 of them—that’s an 80% hit rate. Today, he’s up against the Jaguars’ defense, which is as soft as cake. The Jags are surrendering 177 receiving yards to wide receivers (fourth most in the league) and 281 passing yards to quarterbacks (third most), so brace yourself for a high-scoring shootout with an over/under of 46.0. The books have Brown at 5.5 receptions with a bit of juice, but at 4.5 it’s heavily juiced—so we’re expecting at least five grabs from him. And here’s the kicker: with 5+ receptions, A.J. Brown has hit this over in 29 of his last 30 games—a whopping 97% hit rate—only missing once with 37 yards. With a Jags defense that’s dead last in DVOA and EPA, buckle up, because Brown is set to fly past this line!
NFL Player Prop Trend: Matthew Stafford Over 199.5 Pass Yards
Get ready to ride the Stafford Express to the bank! With all his weapons back last week, Matthew Stafford balled out as the QB5, and he’s primed for an encore against a bottom-five pass defense. He’s 18th in yards per attempt and 25th in CPOE among 37 quarterbacks, but don’t let that fool you—he’s seventh in highly accurate throw rate and averaging 238 passing yards, hitting the over in 6 of 7 games (that’s an 80% hit rate!) Today, he’s up against a Seahawks defense surrendering 225 passing yards and 31 pass attempts per game. The books have Stafford’s pass attempts at 33.5 or 34.5, but here’s where it gets juicy: when he throws 32 or more times, he’s nailed the over in 28 of 30 games—a whopping 93% hit rate—missing only by a combined 16 yards in those rare misses.
NFL Player Prop Trend: T.J. Hockenson Over 1.5 Receptions
FYI: I combined all three on Hard Rock @ -150 Odds. I also used a 30% BOOST. See you at the finish line 🫡
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