Welcome to NFL Week 11 Player Prop Trends, your daily source for the best FREE props with the hottest trends and best odds. Every week I try and find you the best Props so you can either Parlay all 3 picks or maybe one you like for your own Parlays. Be sure to Bookmark this page as I will always have an article for you all! Now let’s get to it.
NFL Player Prop Trend: Lamar Jackson Over 199.5 Passing Yards
Get ready to ride the Lamar Jackson express, because this season he’s been nothing short of electrifying! Averaging a stellar 266.9 passing yards per game, and over his last six outings, he’s upped the ante to a jaw-dropping 301 yards per game—smashing the over 100% of the time during that hot streak. And guess what? He’s no stranger to torching the Steelers either, surpassing this mark in both career games against them with an average of 244 passing yards. Now, the Steelers might flaunt a top-10 defense and have limited quarterbacks in fantasy points, but they’re still surrendering an average of 234 passing yards per game. Since Week 4, that number balloons to 260 yards! The stingiest they’ve been is allowing 202 yards, yet every quarterback they’ve faced has easily crushed the 199.5 passing yards line. The bookmakers are setting Lamar’s pass attempts at 28.5 or 29.5, and when he throws 28 or more passes on the road, he’s hit the over in a whopping 17 out of 18 games—that’s a sizzling 94% success rate
NFL Player Prop Trend: Patrick Mahomes Over 199.5 Pass Yards
Alright folks, even though I’m not the biggest fan of the Chiefs or Mahomes, credit where it’s due—the man is absolutely on fire this season! He’s averaging 245 passing yards and hitting the over at a sizzling 78% clip. In just the last two weeks, Mahomes has soared to sixth in passing yards per game, third in passing touchdowns, and tenth in passer rating. Meanwhile, the Bills’ pass defense is slipping quietly into mediocrity—they’ve allowed the 12th-highest yards per attempt, seventh-most passing yards, third-highest Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE), and 14th-most passing touchdowns since Week 5. With Buffalo giving up an average of 259 passing yards per game and every QB surpassing 200 yards against them in that span, Mahomes is set up for a monster game this week. The books have his pass attempts at 33.5 or 34.5, and here’s the kicker: when Mahomes throws 28 or more passes on the road, he’s got a perfect 100% hit rate over his entire career.
NFL Player Prop Trend: Garrett Wilson Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
There’s absolutely no reason to jump off the Wilson bandwagon now! Despite last week’s hiccup, the NFL’s target leader is still seeing a ton of volume, keeping him firmly in the WR1 conversation as he heads into Week 11 against the Indianapolis Colts—a matchup that’s ripe for the picking. The Colts rank 21st in fantasy points allowed to opposing wideouts and 22nd in defensive DVOA against the pass. Wilson has smashed this over at a 90% clip this season, averaging 70 receiving yards per game. His receptions line is set at 5.5 with plenty of juice, and get this: at 5+ receptions, he’s hit the over in 26 of his last 28 games—a staggering 93% hit rate. And at 6+ receptions? The man is flawless—a perfect 100% over his entire career.
FYI: I combined all three on Hard Rock @ +102 Odds. See you at the finish line 🫡
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