NFL Player Props for Week 13: Black Friday Football
Benitt
Welcome to NFL Player Props for Week 13: Black Friday Football your daily source for the best FREE props with the hottest trends and best odds. Every week I try and find you the best Props so you can either Parlay all 3 picks or maybe one you like for your own Parlays. Be sure to Bookmark this page as I will always have an article for you all! Now let’s get to it.
NFL Player Prop Trend: Travis Kelce Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
it’s time to ride the Travis Kelce train to Profitville! Kelce is averaging 51.7 receiving yards per game this season, smashing the over at a scorching 73% rate. Last week, he snagged six catches for 62 yards in the Chiefs’ victory over Carolina, hitting those benchmarks in six of his last eight outings. Now, he’s lining up against the Raiders, a team he absolutely torched in Week 8 with 10 receptions and 90 yards. The Raiders have been a tight end’s paradise, coughing up the third-most fantasy points and the seventh-most receiving yards (61.5 per game) to the position this season—a number that has ballooned to a whopping 100 yards per game since Week 8! The sportsbooks have Kelce’s receptions prop juiced over 5.5, and here’s the kicker: when Kelce hauls in 5+ receptions, he’s hit the over 100% of the time this season and an astounding 29 out of his last 30 games, averaging 81 receiving yards.
NFL Player Prop Trend: Jakobi Meyers Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
Jakobi Meyers is on a tear! Over his last five games, he’s been lighting up the field with an average of 75.6 receiving yards, hitting the over in four out of five matchups (and missing the fifth by a mere two yards). Without Davante Adams in the mix, Meyers has become a volume monster, snagging a 24.5% target share, a 37% air-yard share, 1.89 yards per route run, and a 32.9% first-read share since Week 4. He’s averaging 71.2 receiving yards per game in that stretch, and while the touchdowns have been scarce—with just one from four red-zone targets—that’s all the more reason to believe he’s due for a breakout. Last time he faced Kansas City, he racked up six receptions, 52 yards, and a score, finishing as the WR20 for the week. Plus, the Chiefs have been more generous to perimeter receivers lately, allowing the 13th-highest PPR points per target since Week 7. Meyers is super juiced on the over at 4.5 receptions, and get this: at 5+ receptions he’s hit this over in all six games this season and a jaw-dropping 97% of his last 30 games (that’s 29 out of 30!).
NFL Player Prop Trend: Aidan O’Connell Over 174.5 Passing Yards
Alright, I know betting on O’Connell’s passing yards isn’t exactly the flashiest move—you might even be tempted to skip this one—but hear me out! Sure, among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, O’Connell ranks near the bottom with the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest CPOE. But here’s where it gets juicy: the books have him slated for a whopping 34.5 to 36.5 pass attempts—that’s a ton of throws! Historically, when AOC has 28+ pass attempts, he’s hit the over 88% of the time, averaging 243 passing yards. Bump that up to 33+ attempts, and he’s a perfect 100%, averaging 255 yards. Need more? Every quarterback this season has thrown for at least 175 yards against the Chiefs. Even with their strong defense, they’re still allowing an average of 225 passing yards to QBs. That’s why I’m loving this play—it’s got hidden gem written all over it!
FYI: I combined all three on Fliff @ -120 Odds. See you at the finish line 🫡
Ready to do your own research or find trends like this?
