NFL Player Props for Week 15: Thursday Night Football

Welcome to NFL Player Props for Week 15: Thursday Night Football your daily source for the best FREE props with the hottest trends and best odds. Every week I try and find you the best Props so you can either Parlay all 3 picks or maybe one you like for your own Parlays. Be sure to Bookmark this page as I will always have an article for you all! Now let’s get to it.

NFL Player Prop Trend: Brock Purdy Over 199.5 Pass Yards

Purdy bounced back in a big way last week, climbing to QB9 in fantasy points per game and now looking like a prime spot to hit his over again. Among 43 qualifying quarterbacks, he’s first in yards per attempt, ranks top-ten in passing yards per game, and sits in the top 12 for passer rating and fantasy points per dropback. On the season, he’s hit this over at an impressive 83% clip, bumping up to 90% at home over his last 10 games. Today, he draws a Rams defense that, since Week 9, has allowed the sixth-highest yards per attempt, the fourth-most passing touchdowns, the ninth-most passing yards per game, and the ninth-highest success rate per dropback. The books have set Purdy’s pass attempts around 29.5 to 30.5, but here’s the kicker: he doesn’t need a ton of volume. Whenever he’s cleared 19 pass attempts in his last 30 games, he’s averaging 266 passing yards and has crushed the over in 28 of those 30 contests. Purdy’s not a guy who misses too often, and today looks like more of the same.

NFL Player Prop Trend: Jauan Jennings Over 39.5 Receiving Yards

Jennings has been on an absolute tear lately, and there’s really no reason to doubt he’ll keep the good times rolling this week. Since Week 10, he’s emerged as the WR8 in fantasy points per game, piling up five red zone targets, topping 16 fantasy points three times, and consistently cashing in on his receiving yard props—he’s hit the over in five straight contests, averaging a cool 74 yards. The matchup looks juicy too, with the Rams running single high on over half their snaps this season, and Jennings torching that look since Week 10, earning a 30% target share, posting 2.61 YPRR, and claiming a hefty 33.9% first-read share. The Rams’ defense has been generous to perimeter receivers since Week 9, allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game and the third-most PPR points per target. The books have Jennings at 5.5 receptions, and considering he’s averaging 73.5 yards when catching 4 or more balls—hitting the over every single time, it’s looking like easy money. Oh, and don’t forget that at least 3+ receptions, he’s averaging an absurd 134 receiving yards against the Rams. Need I say more?

NFL Player Prop Trend: Kyren Williams Over 49.5 Rushing Yards

How can you not jump on Kyren Williams every single week? He just turned 31 touches into an RB5 finish with two rushing touchdowns against Buffalo, and now he faces a 49ers squad ranked fourth in DVOA versus the pass but only 20th against the run. Over his last 10 games, Williams is averaging 84.9 rushing yards, hitting the over at a 100% hit rate. The sportsbooks have his rush attempts line at 17.5 to 18.5, and whenever he’s hit 13+ rush attempts, he’s smashed the over, averaging 89.8 rushing yards. Bottom line: This feels like a no-brainer play that you won’t want to miss.

FYI: I combined all three on Hard Rock @ -140 Odds. I also used a 30% BOOST making this -108 Odds. See you at the finish line 🫡

MySpariEdge Insights