Welcome to NFL Player Prop Trends (10/03/24), your daily source for the best FREE props with the hottest trends and best odds. Today I am doing something a little different and serving you up some NFL Trends! Make sure you bookmark MySpariInsights as I will always have an article for you all! Now let’s get to it.
NFL Player Prop Trend: Darnell Mooney Over 24.5 Receiving Yards
Alright, folks, let me tell you about one of my absolute favorite props for tonight: Darnell Mooney over 24.5 receiving yards. You know that feeling when a line just screams, “Take me!”? That’s exactly where I’m at with this one. Mooney’s receptions are juiced at -150 to -160 for over 3.5 catches, so the books are confident he’s snagging at least four receptions. But here’s the kicker: even if he only gets three, this man crushes the over on 24.5 receiving yards—he’s hit this over in every single game when he has 3+ receptions, that’s 28 out of 28 times! Every. Single. Time. Let that sink in. “But what about the Bucs’ defense?” you might ask. Well, they’re allowing 13.2 receptions to wide receivers per game (7th most in the league) and 22 targets per game to WRs (4th most). They’re practically handing out yardage like it’s Halloween candy. Now, I know the Falcons are only throwing for 198.7 passing yards per game, but Primetime Kirk Cousins has been on fire, averaging 302 passing yards over his last five games. You better believe Mooney’s going to get his piece of the pie. So, if you’re looking for a prop with historical backing, juicy stats, and a wide receiver who delivers when given the chance, Mooney over 24.5 receiving yards is your guy.
NFL Player Prop Trend: Chris Godwin Over 49.5 Receiving Yards
I’m all over Godwin this week, and here’s why: he’s been nothing short of Mr. Consistent this season, hitting the over on his receiving yards in every single game so far, averaging a solid 80.5 receiving yards per game, and let’s not forget the 8.5 targets he’s getting on average. The sportsbooks have his reception line set at 5.5, and it’s juiced for a reason—Godwin’s history backs this up big time. Over his career, when he’s had 6+ receptions, he’s hit this over 89% of the time, averaging a monster 81.1 receiving yards. Against the Falcons specifically? He’s 4 for 4 in hitting this mark, with a 100% hit rate and averaging 81.3 receiving yards. If history tells us anything, it’s that Godwin loves playing against Atlanta. Now, let’s dive into that Falcons defense—they’re allowing a brutal 14 receptions per game to wide receivers, which ranks them 5th worst in the league, and they’re giving up 132 receiving yards per game to WRs. Basically, the Falcons are handing out receiving yards like candy, and Godwin is primed to take advantage. Godwin’s been nothing but reliable, and this week, all the stars are aligned for him to smash his lines once again.
NFL Player Prop Trend: Bijan Robinson Over 1.5 Receptions
The guy is an absolute stud when it comes to catches, and tonight’s matchup against the Bucs is looking delicious. If you’re like me and eyeing Robinson’s receptions, the 3+ line is screaming, “Bet me!” But here’s the catch: Hard Rock only does increments of 2, so you’ve got to either settle for 2 receptions or take a bold swing at 4 receptions. If you’re on a platform offering 3+ receptions, jump on it—it’s heavily juiced for 2+ receptions, and for good reason. Robinson has hit over 2 receptions in every single game this season, averaging 3.8 catches on 4 targets per game. In his last seven games, he’s maintained a perfect 100% hit rate, averaging 4.5 receptions. Even over his last 10 games, he boasts a 90% hit rate with an average of 4.1 catches. The stars are aligning because the Bucs are downright awful at defending running backs in the passing game—they allow 6.5 receptions per game to RBs, ranking second-worst in the league, and give up 60.7 receiving yards per game to RBs, also second-worst. Translation? A boatload of targets are coming Bijan’s way, as the Bucs give up the third-most targets to RBs at 7.5 per game. Whether you’re taking Robinson for 2+ receptions or feeling spicy with 3+ receptions, he’s in a great spot to smash tonight. The stats back it up, the matchup is perfect, and Robinson has been Mr. Reliable.
FYI: I combined all three on Hard Rock @ -115. Check your Books!
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