NFL Player Props for Week 12: Monday Night Football

Welcome to NFL Player Props for Week 12: Monday Night Football your daily source for the best FREE props with the hottest trends and best odds. Every week I try and find you the best Props so you can either Parlay all 3 picks or maybe one you like for your own Parlays. Be sure to Bookmark this page as I will always have an article for you all! Now let’s get to it.

NFL Player Prop Trend: Lamar Jackson Over 199.5 Pass Yards

Remember when I wrote about Lamar Jackson for over 200 passing yards last week? Well, it was a nail-biter, but he came through for us, and I’m hopping right back on the Lamar train! Sure, he had his worst fantasy day of the 2024 season in that tough loss to the Steelers, but I fully expect him to bounce back against the Chargers. Chargers might rank sixth in defensive DVOA against the pass, but they’re just 18th in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks—just ask Joe Burrow, who torched them for 356 yards last week! Over the past four weeks, they’ve been giving up an average of 261 passing yards to QBs, a significant jump from their season average of 223. The books have Lamar’s pass attempts at 30.5 or 31.5, and when he hits 30+ attempts, he’s averaging 252 passing yards over his last 30 games with a whopping 90% hit rate.

NFL Player Prop Trend: Justin Herbert Over 199.5 Pass Yards

If you’re glancing at Justin Herbert’s season-long stats and scratching your head about why I’m all in on him tonight, let me fill you in: this guy is on fire! After starting the year by finishing outside the top 20 quarterbacks in fantasy points for five straight games, Herbert has flipped the script, landing inside the top 20 in his last five outings. He’s poised to make it six in a row against Baltimore’s pass-funnel defense, which has surrendered the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Over the past five weeks, Herbert has ditched the training wheels, averaging 274 passing yards and hitting the over in 4 out of 5 games. The sportsbooks have set his pass attempts at 34.5 or 35.5 tonight, but here’s the kicker: when he throws 28 or more passes—not only has he hit this over in all 4 games this season, but over a 30-game span, he’s achieved a 93% hit rate, going over in 28 out of 30 games!

NFL Player Prop Trend: Ladd McConkey Over 29.5 Receiving Yards

Get ready to ride the McConkey train to profit town! According to Underdog NFL, he’s suiting up today, and there’s no better time to jump on board. McConkey is the WR32 in fantasy points per game but has soared to WR3 or higher finishes in five of his last seven outings—that’s some serious momentum! He’s grabbing a juicy 22.2% target share, boasting a sizzling 2.44 yards per route run, and commanding a 26.6% first-read share. Since Week 4, he’s been a red zone magnet with four targets and leads his team with a 21.3% target share, 1.72 YPRR, and a stellar 25% first-read share. Now, he’s set to roast a Baltimore secondary that’s been generous to slot receivers, allowing the eighth-most receiving yards and tenth-most fantasy points per game. McConkey has smashed the over in 9 out of 10 games this season—a whopping 90% hit rate—with his only miss against Carolina. He’s super juiced at over 4.5 receptions tonight, but here’s the kicker: at 3+ receptions he’s hit this over in every game of his career.

FYI: I combined all three Fliff @ -130 Odds. See you at the finish line 🫡

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