NFL Player Props for Week 16: Thursday Night Football
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Welcome to NFL Player Props for Week 16: Thursday Night Football your daily source for the best FREE props with the hottest trends and best odds. Every week I try and find you the best Props so you can either Parlay all 3 picks or maybe one you like for your own Parlays. Be sure to Bookmark this page as I will always have an article for you all! Now let’s get to it.
NFL Player Prop Trend: Bo Nix Over 174.5 Pass Yards
If you’re still stinging from last week’s Nix experiment, let’s chalk that one up as an outlier and get back on the horse because the numbers don’t lie: Nix has quietly been a top-10 fantasy QB this season, notching QB1 performances in four of his last seven games. Since Week 8, he’s ranking 11th in passing yards per game, eighth in passing touchdowns, and sitting comfortably mid-pack in passer rating and completion percentage. Sure, last week’s 130-yard dud wasn’t pretty, but he rattled off six straight contests of 266 passing yards or more before that. Now he faces a Chargers defense that’s allowed the second-most passing touchdowns since Week 10, looking more like a turnstile than a fortress. Tonight, the books have Nix at 33.5 pass attempts, and here’s the kicker: at just 27 attempts, he’s averaging 229 yards and hitting the over at an 83% clip over his career. Translation? This looks like the perfect night to roll the dice on Nix again.
NFL Player Prop Trend: Ladd McConkey Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
Ladd McConkey has been absolutely scorching hot lately, and he’s back to face the Broncos—a team he did well against with 43 receiving yards. Since Week 8, he has been the WR13 in fantasy points per game, and he’s been a yard-gaining machine despite seeing just two red zone targets in that span. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaging 76 receiving yards and hitting the over at a perfect 100% rate! Sure, Denver’s pass defense is stingy in terms of PPR points per target to slot guys, but with the Broncos forcing opponents into the air, it’s no surprise they’ve faced the third-most slot targets since Week 10. Vegas has set McConkey’s receptions at 5.5, and here’s the kicker: whenever he hits at least 4 catches, he’s averaging 75 yards and crushing the over at a 90% clip—his only miss by a single yard against the Raiders. The math is simple: McConkey plus volume equals cash.
NFL Player Prop Trend: Courtland Sutton Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
Get ready to ride the Sutton train tonight, because this guy is on fire! He’s currently the WR26 in fantasy points per game, popping up sixth in deep targets, fourth in red zone looks, and coming in 14th in total receiving yards with a spot at 16th in touchdowns. Over the last seven weeks, Sutton’s been averaging a scorching 85 receiving yards, hitting the over in six out of those seven contests. Facing a Chargers secondary that’s been especially charitable since Week 10 (allowing the sixth-most fantasy points and eighth-most receiving yards to perimeter wide receivers), Sutton’s a smash bet. The books have him at 5.5 receptions tonight, but at just 4+ catches he’s cruising past the over 90% of the time for 72 yards on average. If he gets 5+ receptions, it’s virtually a lock—he’s crushed that mark in 24 of his last 25 games, averaging 84 yards. Don’t overthink it; Sutton’s the man to watch tonight.
FYI: I combined all three on Fliff @ -130 Odds. See you at the finish line 🫡
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