Welcome to NFL Week 13 Player Prop Trends, your daily source for the best FREE props with the hottest trends and best odds. Every week I try and find you the best Props so you can either Parlay all 3 picks or maybe one you like for your own Parlays. Be sure to Bookmark this page as I will always have an article for you all! Now let’s get to it.
NFL Player Prop Trend: Justin Herbert Over 199.5 Passing Yards
Ever since coming off the bye week, Justin Herbert has been on fire. Since Week 6, he’s averaging 260 passing yards per game! Facing the Falcons today, who rank 26th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and 28th in DVOA against the pass, Herbert is primed for a monster performance. The Falcons have allowed an average of 232 passing yards per game this season, but over the last four weeks, that number has jumped to 288 passing yards allowed to QBs. The books have Herbert’s pass attempts set between 31.5 and 33.5, and with 28+ pass attempts, he’s hit over 199.5 passing yards in 5 out of 5 games this season. Over a longer span, he’s achieved this in 28 out of 30 games, giving us a 93% hit rate. Don’t be surprised if Herbert throws for 300+ yards today.
NFL Player Prop Trend: Ladd McConkey Over 39.5 Receiving Yards
Georgia Bulldogs’ standout Ladd McConkey is another player to watch. He’s been a consistent performer, finishing as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver in four of his last eight games. McConkey is a key part of Herbert’s offense with a 21.6% target share, 2.37 yards per route run (YPRR), and a 27% first-read share. He’s tied for the team lead with four end-zone targets. Facing a defense that’s allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game and ranks 17th in receiving yards per game allowed to slot receivers, McConkey should have a big day. He’s hit over 39.5 receiving yards in 9 out of 9 games—a 100% hit rate—averaging 70 yards in that span. The Falcons have allowed 178 receiving yards to WRs over the last 4 games, up from 152 yards earlier in the season. Today the Books have him extremely juiced at 4.5 receptions. Lucky for us at 3+ receptions, he’s averaging 68.9 receiving yards with his only miss being by 1 yard!
NFL Player Prop Trend: Darnell Mooney Over 29.5 Receiving Yards
If you’ve been following my articles, you know I’m all aboard the Mooney train. Last week I held back, but today, I’m all in. Darnell Mooney, currently the WR25 in fantasy points per game, ranks seventh in deep targets among wide receivers. With a 21.3% target share, 2.09 YPRR, and a 28.9% first-read share, he’s set up for success. He faces a Chargers secondary that, since Week 10, ranks 18th in receiving yards allowed per game and 16th in PPR points per target allowed to perimeter wide receivers. Over his last 10 games, Mooney is averaging 69.6 receiving yards, hitting the over in 9 out of 10 games. The books have him at 4.5 receptions, but with heavy juice on 4+ receptions, we only need 3+ receptions for him to hit this over. At 3+ receptions, he’s 9 out of 9 games this season, and over a longer span, he’s hit this over in 28 out of 30 games, missing by just 4 total yards.
FYI: I combined all three on Fliff @ -120 Odds. See you at the finish line 🫡
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